Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:09:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18d4…bb62 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%39W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$6
crypto 23% +$2
world 17% +$2
finance 7% +$1
tech 4% $0
politics 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 40 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses39 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage526d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $99 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $65 $66 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 11-17? May 22 $68 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 12 $68 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 06 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March? Apr 11 $75 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 11 $212 $0 +0%
Over $200M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 14 $45 $0 +0%
Bikinis back on X by January 16? Jan 29 $19 +$1 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Jan 13 $22 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Other be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $34 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 02 $28 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Oct 02 $29 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Aug 01 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 15? May 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 2–9? May 05 $101 $0 +0%
Will SOL flip ETH before May? May 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 30 $19 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? Apr 16 $78 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April? Apr 03 $11 $0 +1%
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before April? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Bybit insolvent before April? Apr 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? Apr 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14? Mar 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will StepFun have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Apple launch an iMac on February 19? Feb 20 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 1025-1049 times Feb 7-14? Feb 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14? Feb 10 $19 $0 +1%
Ethereum above $3,400 on February 7? Feb 08 $12 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 750 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 08 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3000 by Wednesday? Feb 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $40 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend presidential inauguration? Jan 21 $11 $0 +1%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 21 $27 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Jan 10-17? Jan 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17? Jan 15 $17 −$8 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $87 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $46 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 99¢ $65 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $68 40d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $68 46d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $51 71d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $75 102d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $212 112d
Over $200M committed to the Hurupay public sale? BUY No 100¢ $45 136d
Bikinis back on X by January 16? BUY No 97¢ $19 159d
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $22 195d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $41 224d
Will Other be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $34 247d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 271d
Xi Jinping out before October? BUY No 98¢ $28 296d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? BUY No 97¢ $20 329d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? BUY Down 100¢ $21 382d
Ethereum Up or Down on May 15? BUY Down 100¢ $31 401d
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 2–9? BUY No 100¢ $101 414d
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? BUY No 99¢ $19 422d
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? BUY No 100¢ $78 434d
Will SOL flip ETH before May? BUY No 100¢ $22 439d
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before April? BUY No 100¢ $14 451d
Bybit insolvent before April? BUY No 100¢ $20 456d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? BUY No 100¢ $18 457d
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April? BUY No 99¢ $11 463d
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $26 466d
Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14? BUY No 100¢ $21 466d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.37 · official $211.37 (match) · 85 history records