Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:26:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18d3…d972 crypto 425 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$354 (-8%) realized −$354 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%237W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$63
14 days−$351
30 days−$413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -11.7% -20.1% 55% 50% -25.0%
≤30d 406 -11.0% -19.5% 56% 55% -18.6%
≤90d 406 -11.0% -19.5% 56% 55% -18.6%
all 425 -12.1% -20.5% 56% 54% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 54% -19.2%
10% -28.1% 46% -26.9%
15% -35.0% 31% -34.0%
20% -41.4% 14% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$354
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses237 / 188
Open positions0
Markets (closed)425 / 425
History coverage101d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 425 Trades
no open positions (116 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $72 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$13 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $72 −$51 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 07 $8 −$7 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 07 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 07 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $56 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $22 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $8 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $18 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $13 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $13 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $28 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $6 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1013 history records