Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18d2…a67d sports 437 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,798 (-5%) realized −$3,707 · open −$91
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate68%293W / 141L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$278est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$88
14 days−$124
30 days−$937
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$856
other 23% −$3,428
crypto 6% −$56
world 3% −$100
politics 0% +$27
tech 0% +$5
finance 0% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -8.2% -16.9% 54% 38% +6.7%
≤30d 264 -4.1% -13.2% 69% 41% -14.2%
≤90d 434 -7.1% -15.9% 68% 38% -14.2%
all 434 -7.1% -15.9% 68% 38% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 38% -14.2%
10% -24.0% 20% -22.4%
15% -31.3% 12% -29.9%
20% -38.1% 8% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$86 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$3,707
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses293 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$278
Open positions3
Markets (closed)434 / 437
History coverage61d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 434 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 91¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 48¢ $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 92¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $10 −$6 -56%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $10 −$5 -45%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $50 +$4 +7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $222 +$88 +40%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $10 −$6 -58%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $10 +$4 +39%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $3 +$2 +68%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $10 −$3 -35%
Will FC Gifu win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Foggia: Giorgia Pedone vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 05 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$3 +63%
Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana Jun 05 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 05 $4 $0 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $17 +$1 +6%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $30 −$4 -14%
Cyprus leading at halftime? Jun 04 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 04 $20 +$3 +12%
Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs Andreeva Jun 04 $10 +$1 +12%
Foggia: Carole Monnet vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 04 $50 +$5 +11%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter Jun 04 $10 +$3 +26%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 04 $50 +$4 +8%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Elias Ymer Jun 04 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 04 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 04 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 04 $81 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 04 $20 +$6 +32%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 -3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 +$17 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 03 $25 +$1 +3%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $224 −$100 -44%
Will DR Congo vs. Denmark end in a draw? Jun 03 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $15 +$2 +13%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: Draw at halftime? Jun 03 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $67 −$66 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $20 +$2 +8%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Aoyama/Liang vs Guo/Mladenovic Jun 03 $70 +$12 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $100 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria SELL Elena Rybakina 38¢ $4 5d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic SELL Donna Vekic 62¢ $9 5d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Donna Vekic 68¢ $10 5d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 85¢ $10 5d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 88¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 78¢ $21 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 40¢ $6 5d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard SELL Daniil Medvedev 88¢ $49 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $54 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $54 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 93¢ $50 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 93¢ $50 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $310 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 5d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 31¢ $4 6d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 71¢ $10 6d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 71¢ $10 6d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 100¢ $14 6d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli SELL Jesper de Jong 100¢ $11 6d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 90¢ $50 6d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 71¢ $10 6d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli BUY Jesper de Jong 90¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.13 · official $159.08 (match) · 1108 history records