Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18ce…5d26 other 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$376 (-19%) realized −$281 · open −$95
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$856now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$80
other 46% −$173
politics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -4.7% -13.8% 10% 10% -23.3%
≤30d 21 -4.7% -13.8% 10% 10% -23.3%
≤90d 21 -4.7% -13.8% 10% 10% -23.3%
all 21 -4.7% -13.8% 10% 10% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 10% -23.3%
10% -22.0% 10% -30.7%
15% -29.6% 10% -37.4%
20% -36.5% 10% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +68% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$358 vs −$46 · ×7.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$856
Realized−$281
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 19
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions28
Markets (closed)21 / 49
History coverage6d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $55 $90 +$35 (+64%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $46 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $47 $45 −$2 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+6%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $18 $23 +$5 (+26%)
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-6%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $60 $11 −$49 (-81%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 14¢ 10¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$231 +226%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 18 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $96 −$93 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $82 −$80 -97%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $68 −$67 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$486 +1575%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $47 27m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 28m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 29m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 30m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $48 31m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 31m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $39 32m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 33m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $92 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $96 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $82 2d
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 4d
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 4¢ $19 4d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 4d
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 4d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 4d
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 4d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 4d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $856.27 · official $856.32 (match) · 58 history records