Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:11:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18c9…0079 crypto 1554 markets active 9h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d only
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$100 (+0%) realized +$433 · open −$333
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate87%1359W / 195L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day103.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,000now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$17
14 days−$390
30 days−$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$297
other 4% −$333
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 +1.4% -8.3% 90% 40% -8.0%
≤30d 1554 -0.4% -9.8% 87% 43% -10.5%
≤90d 1554 -0.4% -9.8% 87% 43% -10.5%
all 1554 -0.4% -9.8% 87% 43% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 43% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 14% -19.1%
15% -26.3% 3% -26.9%
20% -33.6% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$18 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$2,000
Realized+$433
Unrealized−$333
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1359 / 195
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1554 / 1554
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day103.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1554 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 67¢ $1,000 $1,333 +$333 (+33%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 33¢ $1,000 $667 −$333 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $7 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $7 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $7 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,000.00 · official $2,000.00 (match) · 3500 history records