Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:14:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18c8…b7b4 politics 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 65L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$17
sports 2% $0
other 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 1 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
all 68 -0.6% -10.1% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage630d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $56 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $57 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $114 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 16 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will Zdeněk Hřib be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic afte Nov 24 $56 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Vardy be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alperen Sengun lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Texas win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Elon Musk bans Apple devices at his companies? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will another movie gross most in 2024? Jan 30 $4 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Pitts be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Garrett Wilson be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trey McBride be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will another model be the top AI model on December 31? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will Jackson Arnold win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will $NOT be listed first on Robinhood? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Zach LaVine lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 10 $0 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Nov 25 $0 $0 -6%
Will Penn State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 25 $0 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Sid Miller for Agriculture Secretary? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jim Jordan be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119t Nov 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Hoffenheim win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 18 $0 $0 -1%
Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 18 $0 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Rick Perry for Energy Secretary? Nov 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Bobby Jindal for HHS Secretary? Nov 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 11 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship? Nov 11 $0 $0 -0%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Mariah Carey be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century? Nov 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 11 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $55 1h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 14h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 34d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 35d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 42d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 42d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 61d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 62d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $57 66d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $57 67d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 68d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 68d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $57 77d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 78d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $57 91d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $57 92d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $57 95d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $57 95d
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 100¢ $57 97d
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 100¢ $57 97d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 100d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 101d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $57 110d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $57 111d
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $56 167d
Will Zdeněk Hřib be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic afte SELL No 100¢ $56 207d
Will Zdeněk Hřib be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic afte BUY No 100¢ $56 244d
Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $1 546d
Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $1 546d
Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship? SELL No 96¢ $1 546d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records