Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x18c6…9634
sports · 61 markets active 3h ago
3.0score
−$866 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$862 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$98
Realized−$862
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses29 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage182d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 2 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$52
30 days−$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $96 $93 −$3 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner JD Gaming 21¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-13? No 32¢ 0¢ $608 $0 −$608 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Spurs Hornets 30¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner G2 Esports 26¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Team WE 52¢ 0¢ $416 $0 −$416 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Tundra Esports 33¢ 0¢ $297 $0 −$297 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Hornets Hornets 48¢ 0¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming (BO3) Anyones Legend 66¢ 0¢ $462 $0 −$462 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner JD Gaming 36¢ 0¢ $289 $0 −$289 (-100%)
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Team Heretics 36¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner ThunderTalk Gaming 24¢ 0¢ $192 $0 −$192 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Bilibili Gaming 58¢ 0¢ $466 $0 −$466 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Pelicans Pelicans 43¢ 0¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Oh My God 39¢ 0¢ $312 $0 −$312 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner G2 Esports 30¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Top Esports 20¢ 0¢ $160 $0 −$160 (-100%)
Nets vs. Clippers Nets 20¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 85¢ 0¢ $510 $0 −$510 (-100%)
Predators vs. Oilers Predators 39¢ 0¢ $175 $0 −$175 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Dplus KIA 33¢ 0¢ $264 $0 −$264 (-100%)
Avalanche vs. Kraken Kraken 27¢ 0¢ $297 $0 −$297 (-100%)
Ducks vs. Capitals Ducks 44¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
76ers vs. Thunder 76ers 13¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $48 +$52 +108%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $297 −$297 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 02 $224 +$476 +212%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 02 $264 −$264 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 01 $784 +$616 +79%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 21 $558 +$457 +82%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Lynx (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Cl Apr 21 $44 +$6 +13%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Ugo Humbert vs Jannik Sinner Apr 08 $48 +$2 +4%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Mar 30 $36 +$14 +37%
Hawks vs. Mavericks Mar 19 $675 +$225 +33%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Mar 18 $39 −$39 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 18 $93 −$93 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 18 $90 −$90 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 18 $712 +$88 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Suns vs. Celtics Mar 17 $693 +$207 +30%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 16 $130 +$110 +85%
Hornets vs. Spurs Mar 14 $600 −$600 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-13? Mar 13 $608 −$608 -100%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Mar 13 $495 +$255 +52%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers Mar 12 $165 +$135 +82%
WTT - Women's Singles: Hana Goda vs Yidi Wang Mar 12 $184 +$16 +9%
Warriors vs. Jazz Mar 10 $102 +$228 +223%
Hornets vs. Celtics Mar 05 $31 +$69 +223%
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 21 $47 −$47 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 26 $466 −$466 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 26 $345 −$286 -83%
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jan 26 $634 +$166 +26%
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jan 26 $192 −$192 -100%
Nets vs. Clippers Jan 26 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 23 $92 −$92 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 23 $312 −$312 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Jan 22 $416 −$416 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jan 22 $239 −$169 -71%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseveranc Jan 22 $536 +$164 +31%
Hawks vs. Grizzlies Jan 22 $230 +$270 +117%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming (BO3) Jan 18 $462 −$462 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 18 $160 −$160 -100%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 18 $432 +$168 +39%
Hornets vs. Warriors Jan 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Nuggets vs. Pelicans Jan 13 $103 −$103 -100%
Jazz vs. Cavaliers Jan 12 $510 −$510 -100%
76ers vs. Raptors Jan 12 $342 +$558 +163%
Blues vs. Golden Knights Jan 11 $420 +$180 +43%
Raptors vs. Hornets Jan 08 $240 −$240 -100%
Predators vs. Oilers Jan 06 $175 −$175 -100%
Ducks vs. Capitals Jan 05 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes end in a draw? Jan 04 $261 −$36 -14%
Blue Jackets vs. Senators Dec 30 $291 +$9 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% −$254
other 4% −$612
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $97 2h
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 48¢ $48 10d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Tundra Esports 33¢ $55 24d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Tundra Esports 33¢ $242 24d
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 32¢ $224 41d
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 33¢ $264 41d
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Anyones Legend 56¢ $192 42d
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Anyones Legend 56¢ $13 42d
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Anyones Legend 56¢ $63 42d
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Anyones Legend 56¢ $63 42d
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Anyones Legend 56¢ $454 42d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Team Spirit 55¢ $92 52d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Team Spirit 55¢ $69 52d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Team Spirit 55¢ $389 52d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Team Spirit 54¢ $5 52d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Team Spirit 54¢ $3 52d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Lynx (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Cl BUY Team Liquid 88¢ $44 59d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Ugo Humbert vs Jannik Sinner BUY Jannik Sinner 96¢ $48 66d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 74d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 73¢ $36 77d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 26¢ $39 85d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 31¢ $21 85d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 31¢ $45 85d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 31¢ $27 85d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 30¢ $90 85d
Hawks vs. Mavericks BUY Hawks 75¢ $675 86d
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY JD Gaming 21¢ $105 86d
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B BUY Gen.G 89¢ $79 86d
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B BUY Gen.G 89¢ $8 86d
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B BUY Gen.G 89¢ $8 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +4.2% -5.8% 50% 50% -73.8%
≤90d 17 +5.6% -4.4% 65% 59% +16.0%
all 59 -12.6% -20.9% 49% 42% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 42% -13.9%
10% -28.5% 39% -22.1%
15% -35.4% 32% -29.7%
20% -41.7% 25% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.22 · official $98.22 (match) · 241 history records