Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
18 0x18c6…a4db sports 637 markets active 8h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,369 (+3%) realized +$3,462 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%350W / 275L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$1,101est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,067now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$780
7 days+$2,337
14 days+$2,496
30 days+$827
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$1,636
other 11% −$257
world 3% +$510
politics 1% +$396
culture 0% +$183
finance 0% −$90
tech 0% +$47
crypto 0% +$248
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +20.8% +9.3% 63% 63% +4.7%
≤30d 205 +12.8% +2.0% 60% 60% -7.8%
≤90d 609 +4.9% -5.1% 56% 56% -6.4%
all 625 +4.0% -5.9% 56% 56% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 56% -7.3%
10% -14.9% 53% -16.1%
15% -23.1% 50% -24.2%
20% -30.6% 44% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$170 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$2,067
Realized+$3,462
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses350 / 275
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,101
Open positions12
Markets (closed)625 / 637
History coverage92d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 625 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 54¢ $731 $695 −$35 (-5%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? No 90¢ 90¢ $360 $358 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $268 $266 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $210 $206 −$4 (-2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 82¢ 100¢ $96 $117 +$21 (+22%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 29¢ 34¢ $95 $113 +$18 (+19%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 48¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $74 $72 −$2 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $66 $64 −$2 (-3%)
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $101 $37 −$64 (-64%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $34 $36 +$2 (+6%)
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $25 $8 −$16 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 267 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $247 +$53 +21%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $52 +$33 +64%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $254 +$246 +97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $517 +$452 +87%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $134 +$166 +124%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $6 +$20 +317%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $411 +$317 +77%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $152 +$148 +97%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $179 +$221 +124%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $155 −$153 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $223 −$220 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $211 −$208 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $187 −$184 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 14 $134 −$132 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $237 +$31 +13%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $647 +$353 +55%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $510 +$290 +57%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $170 −$168 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $178 +$160 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $230 −$228 -99%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $192 +$38 +20%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $195 −$192 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $298 −$296 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $716 −$580 -81%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $310 +$90 +29%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $143 +$157 +109%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $235 +$165 +70%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $223 +$177 +79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $342 +$348 +102%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $101 +$83 +83%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $131 +$169 +129%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $187 −$184 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $299 −$295 -99%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $104 −$102 -98%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 12 $155 −$153 -99%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $93 +$107 +114%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $338 −$335 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $151 +$249 +165%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $128 +$172 +134%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $376 +$224 +60%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 12 $624 −$615 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $283 +$117 +42%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 Jun 11 $187 −$184 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $125 +$175 +140%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $289 +$74 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $251 +$149 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $567 8h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $361 8h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 29¢ $18 14h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 29¢ $18 14h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 29¢ $32 14h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 29¢ $29 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $247 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $67 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $271 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $173 17h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $969 32h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 35h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 44¢ $134 36h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $155 39h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 20¢ $54 41h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 50¢ $152 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $13 42h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $223 43h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $211 43h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $187 43h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $179 43h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $134 43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $517 44h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $170 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $230 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $178 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 48¢ $195 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $212 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,066.83 · official $2,066.87 (match) · 1197 history records