Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:48:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x18c6…4cea
crypto · 34 markets active 1h ago
5.0score
+$56 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$56 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses23 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage40d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$207
7 days+$61
14 days+$61
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$159 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $32 +$27 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$111 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $106 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $15 −$10 -67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 28 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $6 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? May 22 $51 +$8 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? May 21 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 20 $5 $0 +7%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes May 05 $3 +$1 +42%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$71
sports 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 2d
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland SELL Canada 3¢ $5 14d
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland BUY Canada 9¢ $15 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +0.9% -8.7% 70% 43% -6.0%
≤30d 32 -6.5% -15.4% 69% 34% -6.7%
≤90d 34 -7.9% -16.7% 68% 35% -6.9%
all 34 -7.9% -16.7% 68% 35% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 35% -6.9%
10% -24.6% 26% -15.8%
15% -31.9% 24% -24.0%
20% -38.6% 18% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records