Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:47:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18c3…21a0 crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,738 (-18%) realized −$795 · open −$943
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate20%6W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$47
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$1,831
other 14% −$143
sports 5% −$253
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -14.3% -22.5% 0% 0% -20.8%
≤90d 5 -65.7% -69.0% 0% 0% -61.3%
all 30 -24.9% -32.0% 20% 17% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 17% -30.7%
10% -38.5% 13% -37.3%
15% -44.5% 13% -43.4%
20% -49.9% 13% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$83 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized−$795
Unrealized−$943
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses6 / 24
Open positions6
Markets (closed)30 / 36
History coverage239d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $928 $86 −$842 (-91%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $100 $26 −$74 (-74%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-56%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $8 −$1 -16%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 04 $373 −$46 -12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? May 06 $194 −$181 -93%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? May 01 $211 −$197 -93%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? May 01 $21 −$20 -93%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 18 $250 −$49 -20%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 24 $599 −$160 -27%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in November? Nov 24 $216 −$216 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in November? Nov 23 $472 +$91 +19%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Nov 23 $307 −$49 -16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 21 $1,328 +$272 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 18 $201 +$226 +113%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 14 $164 +$12 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Nov 07 $65 −$12 -19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November? Nov 05 $28 −$10 -38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? Nov 02 $77 −$29 -38%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $20 +$20 +100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $100 −$100 -100%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Oct 30 $365 +$70 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 30 $20 −$2 -10%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $140 −$26 -19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Oct 26 $848 −$695 -82%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Oct 25 $60 −$29 -49%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 25 $60 −$56 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Oct 24 $182 −$32 -18%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 (BO3) Oct 24 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) Oct 22 $77 −$28 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $107 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $718 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $32 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $427 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $107 2d
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $107 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $534 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $227 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $664 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $988 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $503 8d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $54 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL Yes 9¢ $457 12d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $107 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $107 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 41d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 41d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY Yes 1¢ $107 42d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $62 42d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? BUY Yes 1¢ $104 46d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $74 46d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? BUY Yes 1¢ $107 46d
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 46d
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 149d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $201 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.25 · official $207.25 (match) · 190 history records