Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:08:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
18 0x18c1…7d6f crypto 1568 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$396 (+2%) realized +$1,118 · open −$722
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate71%1177W / 488L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day113.3pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,498now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$237
crypto 40% +$1,037
sports 11% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (113 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 717 -39.6% -45.4% 48% 44% -38.9%
≤30d 1665 -7.6% -16.4% 71% 67% -27.9%
≤90d 1665 -7.6% -16.4% 71% 67% -27.9%
all 1665 -7.6% -16.4% 71% 67% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover113.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 67% -27.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 46% -34.8%
15% -31.7% 24% -41.1%
20% -38.4% 9% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$4,498
Realized+$1,118
Unrealized−$722
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1177 / 488
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1665 / 1568
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day113.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1665 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 48¢ $2,085 $1,944 −$140 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $1,140 $938 −$202 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $694 $712 +$18 (+3%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $998 $561 −$437 (-44%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $276 $315 +$39 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 491 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 53m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2,115 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,117 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,392 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,498.00 · official $4,537.05 (match) · 3500 history records