Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:16:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
18 0x18bc…b423 sports 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$266 (-2%) realized −$266 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate63%54W / 32L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$189est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$42
14 days−$115
30 days−$1,725
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$419
other 5% +$3
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +28.0% +15.8% 100% 100% +15.8%
≤30d 50 -3.2% -12.4% 50% 42% -25.0%
≤90d 86 +6.9% -3.3% 63% 55% -11.8%
all 86 +6.9% -3.3% 63% 55% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 55% -11.8%
10% -12.6% 40% -20.2%
15% -21.0% 26% -27.9%
20% -28.8% 19% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$103 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$266
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses54 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$189
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage76d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $149 +$42 +28%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $485 −$166 -34%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $138 +$32 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $262 −$32 -12%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $55 +$118 +213%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $94 +$10 +11%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $76 −$32 -43%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $99 +$13 +13%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $140 +$14 +10%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $321 −$104 -32%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $8 +$9 +106%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $192 −$112 -58%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $76 +$38 +50%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $63 +$16 +26%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Poor Rangers vs Team G (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europ Jun 08 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 08 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $1,348 −$389 -29%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $60 +$17 +28%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $12 +$34 +287%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $14 −$3 -19%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $10 +$5 +54%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $38 −$29 -75%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage Jun 01 $53 +$41 +78%
Counter-Strike: Project 91 vs Entropy (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 01 $35 +$20 +58%
Will Fukushima United FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $22 +$11 +48%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $390 −$367 -94%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $109 −$100 -91%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $48 +$61 +126%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 30 $218 +$325 +149%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $720 −$145 -20%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $663 +$14 +2%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World C May 30 $105 +$86 +82%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $248 +$2 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 30 $457 −$209 -46%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 29 $112 −$83 -74%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $78 −$78 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 29 $109 −$109 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $219 −$57 -26%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 29 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $1,003 −$587 -59%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $784 +$35 +4%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $347 +$84 +24%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $214 +$138 +64%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $295 +$54 +18%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $134 +$29 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 94¢ $191 40m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $149 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 72¢ $170 12d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Chicago Cubs 98¢ $170 12d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 77¢ $92 12d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 83¢ $46 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 70¢ $138 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $142 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $142 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 60¢ $87 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 42¢ $87 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 82¢ $175 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 70¢ $175 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 68¢ $173 13d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 99¢ $173 13d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 31¢ $55 13d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 99¢ $55 13d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 77¢ $43 13d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P SELL Eintracht Spandau 45¢ $43 13d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Eintracht Spandau 77¢ $76 13d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $76 13d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 47¢ $37 13d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 53¢ $37 13d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 89¢ $62 13d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $62 13d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $41 13d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 27¢ $41 13d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 31¢ $49 13d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 60¢ $49 13d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 61¢ $51 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 246 history records