Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
18 0x18ba…f577 sports 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,724 (+10%) realized +$3,848 · open −$1,124
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%38W / 28L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$408per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$802est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$426now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$474
7 days+$1,309
14 days+$1,785
30 days+$1,974
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$1,026
other 1% −$193
weather 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -15.9% -23.9% 58% 52% -3.1%
≤30d 66 -12.9% -21.2% 58% 52% -2.6%
≤90d 66 -12.9% -21.2% 58% 52% -2.6%
all 66 -12.9% -21.2% 58% 52% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 52% -2.6%
10% -28.8% 35% -11.9%
15% -35.6% 24% -20.4%
20% -41.9% 15% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$269 vs −$294 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$426
Realized+$3,848
Unrealized−$1,124
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses38 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$802
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage17d
Avg bet$408
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Vit Kopriva 8¢ 4¢ $969 $423 −$546 (-56%)
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Andrey Rublev 9¢ 0¢ $582 $3 −$579 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $1,605 +$379 +24%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $300 −$296 -99%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $308 +$51 +17%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $308 +$72 +24%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $978 +$1,378 +141%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $872 −$850 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $280 −$272 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $516 +$1,149 +223%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $617 −$600 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $408 +$111 +27%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $1,476 +$721 +49%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $493 −$479 -97%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $194 −$190 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $205 −$200 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $202 +$23 +11%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $304 +$124 +41%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $202 +$43 +21%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $602 +$393 +65%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $927 +$857 +92%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $410 −$400 -98%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $406 −$400 -98%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $303 +$74 +24%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $102 +$17 +17%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $409 +$42 +10%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $810 +$181 +22%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $303 −$300 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 12 $303 +$63 +21%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $410 +$269 +66%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $307 +$21 +7%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $1,037 +$344 +33%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $592 +$445 +75%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $412 +$180 +44%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $209 −$202 -97%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $412 −$400 -97%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $168 −$164 -98%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $207 −$200 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $205 +$25 +12%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $592 +$63 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $237 +$50 +21%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $206 −$200 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 06 $300 +$143 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $207 −$200 -97%
Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Barbora Palicova Jun 04 $487 +$765 +157%
Foggia: Mayar Sherif vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 04 $137 −$91 -66%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $50 −$6 -12%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $557 −$545 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 8¢ $500 25m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 8¢ $500 25m
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 6¢ $300 55m
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 19¢ $300 1h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 45¢ $725 1h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 32¢ $300 1h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 41¢ $305 1h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 47¢ $1,259 1h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 31¢ $500 1h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 42¢ $500 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 72¢ $300 2h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik SELL Mattia Bellucci 34¢ $359 3h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 28¢ $308 3h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang SELL Xinyu Wang 32¢ $317 4h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang SELL Xinyu Wang 28¢ $63 4h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 24¢ $308 4h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 41¢ $978 11h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 31¢ $872 11h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 20¢ $206 11h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 20¢ $41 11h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 16¢ $33 12h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $205 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $203 21h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Nuno Borges 31¢ $1,666 23h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 9¢ $516 24h
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova 1¢ $310 25h
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova 43¢ $307 25h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $303 34h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 71¢ $519 43h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $408 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $426.31 · official $547.19 · 206 history records