Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x18ba…cd44
crypto · 601 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,629 -56%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,597 · open −$32
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$82
Realized−$5,597
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses303 / 535
Open positions1
Markets (closed)838 / 601
History coverage8d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day380.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 838 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,709
7 days−$5,098
14 days−$5,597
30 days−$5,597
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 90¢ 100¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 47¢ 22¢ $62 $29 −$32 (-53%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Down 91¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 31¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+223%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 44¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+127%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 59¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+69%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 43¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+133%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 55¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+82%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 37¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+170%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $36 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$715
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 818 -31.2% -37.8% 36% 34% -46.5%
≤30d 838 -30.6% -37.2% 36% 34% -46.0%
≤90d 838 -30.6% -37.2% 36% 34% -46.0%
all 838 -30.6% -37.2% 36% 34% -46.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover380.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.2% 34% -46.0%
10% ← realistic here -43.2% 29% -51.2%
15% -48.7% 27% -55.9%
20% -53.7% 23% -60.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.20 · official $76.05 · 3500 history records