Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:07:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18ba…b501 crypto 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$146 (-2%) realized −$88 · open −$58
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate71%101W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$21
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% −$54
world 30% −$31
other 15% −$23
economics 7% −$49
politics 5% +$2
tech 5% −$1
sports 3% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 33 -2.4% -11.7% 9% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 142 -2.0% -11.3% 71% 0% -10.7%
all 142 -2.0% -11.3% 71% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -10.7%
10% -19.8% 0% -19.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized−$88
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses101 / 41
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)142 / 145
History coverage42d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 75¢ 70¢ $150 $141 −$9 (-6%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 70¢ 46¢ $140 $91 −$49 (-35%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 69¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 25 $61 $0 -0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 24 $64 $0 -0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Jun 23 $55 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 22 $204 $0 -0%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $152 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $148 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $102 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $88 $0 -0%
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 15 $52 −$22 -43%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $386 +$3 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $115 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $164 $0 -0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $74 $0 -0%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 07 $114 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $193 −$14 -7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 06 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $130 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 04 $138 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $199 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $119 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $32 −$8 -25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 01 $154 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 30 $170 $0 -0%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? May 30 $144 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 27 $96 +$2 +2%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 26 $75 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 26 $76 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 25 $76 −$1 -1%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $32 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 22 $208 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $30 $0 -0%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 22 $66 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 21 $48 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $12 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 20 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 20 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 20 $25 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 20 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 20 $25 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 19 $25 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 19 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 19 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 19 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $61 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $61 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 64¢ $64 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 64¢ $64 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $150 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 32h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $48 32h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 32h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $55 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $104 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $104 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $152 6d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $152 7d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 70¢ $140 7d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 74¢ $148 8d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $38 8d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $88 8d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $88 8d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $148 8d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $38 8d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 67¢ $3 9d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 67¢ $3 9d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 67¢ $20 9d
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 27¢ $23 9d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 67¢ $4 9d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 67¢ $3 9d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 67¢ $7 9d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 67¢ $25 9d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 67¢ $39 9d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 67¢ $106 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.28 · official $232.01 (match) · 441 history records