Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:55:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

18 0x18b9…997c other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$92 (-4%) realized −$117 · open +$25

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%4W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$201per market

Trades / day3.6pace

Kalshi-fit9%portable

Net worth$857now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-28.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-20.6%	-28.2%	44%	44%	-30.1%
≤30d	9	-20.6%	-28.2%	44%	44%	-30.1%
≤90d	9	-20.6%	-28.2%	44%	44%	-30.1%
all	9	-20.6%	-28.2%	44%	44%	-30.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-28.2%	44%	-30.1%
10%	-35.1%	33%	-36.8%
15%	-41.3%	33%	-42.9%
20%	-47.1%	22%	-48.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 94% · top 2 98% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -21% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$94 vs −$133 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.56 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$857

Realized−$117

Unrealized+$25

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses4 / 5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)9 / 11

History coverage4d

Avg bet$201

Trades / day3.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	87¢	100¢	$736	$845	+$109 (+15%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	28¢	4¢	$95	$12	−$83 (-87%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$484	+$354	+73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$1	+$1	+79%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$508	−$500	-98%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24?	Jun 24	$15	−$14	-95%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$10	+$5	+50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$149	−$149	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$100	+$16	+16%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$10	$0	-4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	28¢	$97	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	85¢	$97	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	87¢	$839	2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$838	2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	55¢	$1	9h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	57¢	$484	9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	48¢	$508	9h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24?	BUY Yes	0¢	$15	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$125	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$116	4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	63¢	$10	4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$24	4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$10	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$100	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $856.73 · official $864.37 (match) · 19 history records