Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:47:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
18 0x18b8…c368 crypto 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18,961 (-9%) realized −$17,342 · open −$1,619
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%98W / 135L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$853per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$14,750now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,027
7 days−$2,027
14 days−$2,027
30 days−$2,027
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$31,779
other 11% −$331
sports 6% +$190
world 2% +$6,699
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +7.2% -3.0% 27% 20% -21.9%
≤30d 15 +7.2% -3.0% 27% 20% -21.9%
≤90d 86 -14.0% -22.2% 35% 33% -22.5%
all 233 -11.4% -19.9% 42% 40% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 40% -21.6%
10% -27.5% 38% -29.1%
15% -34.5% 34% -35.9%
20% -41.0% 30% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$999) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$703 vs −$685 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$14,750
Realized−$17,342
Unrealized−$1,619
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses98 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions6
Markets (closed)233 / 239
History coverage111d
Avg bet$853
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $13,165 $13,129 −$36 (-0%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 80¢ $1,200 $1,617 +$417 (+35%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $300 $1 −$299 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $1,200 $1 −$1,199 (-100%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $300 $1 −$299 (-100%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $205 $1 −$204 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $396 +$9 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $510 +$879 +172%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1,246 −$1,214 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5,297 −$5,221 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1,302 −$1,270 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $401 −$390 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $678 −$660 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $586 +$5,124 +874%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,044 +$3,270 +160%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $462 −$450 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $564 −$550 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $332 −$315 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $717 −$689 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $178 −$50 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6PM ET Apr 18 $501 −$471 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 18 $500 −$480 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 18 $85 −$81 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 17 $200 +$95 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Apr 17 $566 −$542 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 17 $2,099 −$2,017 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8PM ET Apr 17 $1,260 −$1,183 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 17 $517 −$492 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 17 $300 +$747 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Apr 17 $513 −$497 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 17 $59 +$54 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 17 $441 −$420 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 17 $166 −$161 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 17 $910 −$853 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 17 $450 −$423 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 16 $1,050 +$4,560 +434%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 16 $500 +$483 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 04 $580 −$580 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6PM ET Apr 04 $1,849 −$1,230 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 04 $361 −$312 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 04 $200 +$300 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 04 $200 +$165 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 04 $472 −$67 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 04 $300 −$282 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 04 $341 −$330 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 04 $271 +$574 +212%
Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 243.5 Mar 26 $988 +$872 +88%
Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 242.5 Mar 26 $1,200 +$1,215 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 25 $100 +$256 +256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 22 $400 −$66 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7PM ET Mar 22 $575 −$574 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 22 $397 +$187 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 22 $610 −$605 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 22 $1,876 +$1,631 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $210 56m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $308 57m
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $308 57m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,217 59m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,215 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $3,381 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $195 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 32¢ $406 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 58¢ $1,005 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10,106 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $510 4h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $507 4h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $205 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $1,014 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $287 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $256 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $401 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $370 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $513 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $512 11h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $2,638 11h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $1,645 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $308 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $415 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $533 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $586 20h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $466 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $462 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $564 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,750.48 · official $14,750.48 (match) · 849 history records