Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
18 0x18b6…babf sports 791 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$814 (-1%) realized −$931 · open +$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%341W / 444L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$862est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$710now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 84d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$3,354
other 1% −$408
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 -10.9% -19.4% 46% 46% -14.5%
≤30d 514 -12.3% -20.6% 47% 46% -15.6%
≤90d 785 -11.1% -19.6% 43% 43% -15.3%
all 785 -11.1% -19.6% 43% 43% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 43% -15.3%
10% -27.3% 42% -23.4%
15% -34.3% 35% -30.8%
20% -40.8% 30% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$65 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$710
Realized−$931
Unrealized+$117
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses341 / 444
Est. fees paid−$862
Open positions7
Markets (closed)785 / 791
History coverage84d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 785 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 57¢ 96¢ $105 $177 +$71 (+68%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Under 78¢ 97¢ $130 $162 +$32 (+24%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 Under 78¢ 90¢ $111 $129 +$18 (+16%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 40¢ 39¢ $119 $118 −$2 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Jordan leading at halftime? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 423 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $557 −$356 -64%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $135 −$132 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $98 −$97 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $156 +$35 +23%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $63 −$61 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $101 +$34 +34%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $230 +$72 +32%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $305 −$112 -37%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $153 −$52 -34%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $77 +$95 +123%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $78 +$109 +139%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $45 −$44 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $44 −$43 -98%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 16 $34 −$33 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $125 −$122 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $195 −$81 -42%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $52 −$51 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $9 +$13 +139%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $44 −$43 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $56 −$56 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $175 −$41 -24%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $58 +$34 +60%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $82 +$75 +91%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $72 +$101 +139%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $181 +$70 +38%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $68 −$67 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $121 −$120 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $59 +$55 +93%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $95 −$94 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $113 +$159 +141%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $78 +$86 +109%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $68 +$95 +140%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $174 −$171 -98%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $83 −$82 -98%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $55 +$60 +109%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $49 +$65 +134%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $177 +$98 +55%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $95 +$31 +33%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $172 +$220 +128%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $224 −$31 -14%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $85 +$98 +114%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $59 +$57 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $97 −$96 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $157 −$156 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $56 +$96 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 0m
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $52 0m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $62 4m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $65 17m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $57 20m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $107 29m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 78¢ $112 35m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 78¢ $131 52m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $401 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $67 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $68 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $98 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $40 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $191 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $63 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $321 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 81¢ $156 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $68 3h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 76¢ $116 3h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 75¢ $114 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 74¢ $101 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $54 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $74 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $362 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 45¢ $51 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $135 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $91 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 43¢ $53 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $709.75 · official $709.75 (match) · 1436 history records