Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
18 0x18b5…e304 crypto 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$372 (-72%) realized −$244 · open −$128
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$257
sports 25% −$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -6.2% -15.2% 67% 33% -69.7%
≤30d 3 -6.2% -15.2% 67% 33% -69.7%
≤90d 3 -6.2% -15.2% 67% 33% -69.7%
all 3 -6.2% -15.2% 67% 33% -69.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 33% -69.7%
10% -23.3% 33% -72.6%
15% -30.7% 33% -75.3%
20% -37.5% 33% -77.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$312 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$244
Unrealized−$128
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Sharks 20¢ 0¢ $128 $0 −$128 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $69 +$55 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $312 −$312 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Sharks 20¢ $129 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $101 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $108 2h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Sharks 23¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $69 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.32 (match) · 10 history records