Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18b3…6193 crypto 621 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,944 (+0%) realized +$1,944 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate86%535W / 86L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$905per market
Trades / day33.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 84d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6,443
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -3.4% -12.6% 92% 0% -13.1%
≤30d 306 -12.6% -20.9% 77% 15% -12.7%
≤90d 621 -7.1% -15.9% 86% 8% -10.6%
all 621 -7.1% -15.9% 86% 8% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 8% -10.6%
10% -24.0% 5% -19.1%
15% ← realistic here -31.3% 3% -26.9%
20% -38.0% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$1,460) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$179 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,944
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses535 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)621 / 621
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$905
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 621 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET Jun 22 $159 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET Jun 22 $147 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET Jun 22 $146 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET Jun 21 $135 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11PM ET Jun 21 $133 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET Jun 20 $130 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET Jun 20 $123 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3PM ET Jun 20 $123 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $123 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET Jun 20 $120 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET Jun 19 $113 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $113 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 19 $97 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET Jun 19 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $213 −$213 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $205 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $276 −$71 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 18 $274 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $271 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $268 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $258 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $255 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $253 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $88 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $238 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $225 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $216 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $216 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $210 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $208 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $206 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $200 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $191 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $108 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $179 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $165 +$14 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $161 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $156 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $159 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $147 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $80 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $146 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $41 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $109 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $27 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $58 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $75 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $130 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $46 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $123 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $123 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $120 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $38 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $108 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $95 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records