Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
18 0x18b0…af4a crypto 101 markets active 12h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32,052 (-7%) realized −$32,059 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate75%72W / 24L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,704per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,057now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$168
7 days+$315
14 days+$489
30 days+$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$24,728
politics 2% −$7,879
sports 1% +$65
other 1% +$394
world 0% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +7.8% -2.5% 75% 75% +5.0%
≤30d 24 +6.3% -3.8% 71% 71% -3.1%
≤90d 24 +6.3% -3.8% 71% 71% -3.1%
all 96 -4.7% -13.7% 75% 35% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 35% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 25% -23.7%
15% -29.5% 16% -31.1%
20% -36.4% 6% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$7,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$342 vs −$2,362 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$1,057
Realized−$32,059
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses72 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)96 / 101
History coverage482d
Avg bet$4,704
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $300 $323 +$23 (+8%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $250 $233 −$17 (-7%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 58¢ $200 $177 −$23 (-11%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 88¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $201 +$46 +23%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $201 +$65 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $151 +$57 +38%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $101 +$36 +36%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $151 +$69 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $403 +$158 +39%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$106 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $152 +$131 +86%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$111 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 +$60 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $177 +$70 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 +$72 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$33 +32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$197 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $404 +$168 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 05 $354 −$350 -99%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on January 27? Jan 27 $3,005 −$3,005 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 26? Jan 27 $555 +$58 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 25? Jan 26 $2,684 +$263 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 22? Jan 24 $2,000 +$616 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $7,824 −$6,149 -79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 21 Jan 21 $2,500 −$676 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $88,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $4,031 −$4,031 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 20? Jan 21 $3,000 +$226 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 20? Jan 21 $5,228 +$1,470 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 21? Jan 20 $1,000 −$574 -57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 20? Jan 20 $4,500 −$4,202 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $10,174 +$330 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 19? Jan 19 $2,000 −$1,930 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 18? Jan 19 $2,488 −$151 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $2,000 +$327 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 17? Jan 17 $2,000 +$70 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $1,830 −$174 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $4,000 +$155 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $4,500 +$440 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 15? Jan 16 $1,000 +$344 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 15? Jan 16 $1,000 +$429 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 15? Jan 16 $3,500 −$173 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 15? Jan 16 $1,500 +$307 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 14? Jan 15 $1,500 +$265 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 14? Jan 15 $2,000 +$299 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 12h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 12h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $151 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $151 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 4d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 7d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $151 8d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 9d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 9d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $151 9d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 10d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 10d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 11d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 12d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $177 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 12d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 12d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 12d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $203 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $354 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,057.05 · official $1,057.05 (match) · 222 history records