Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:49:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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18 0x18b0…bf1a crypto 450 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$921 (-1%) realized −$919 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%185W / 264L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day50.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,166
other 0% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 30% -16.7%
≤30d 99 -2.6% -11.9% 46% 36% -19.0%
≤90d 449 -6.6% -15.5% 41% 33% -16.6%
all 449 -6.6% -15.5% 41% 33% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 33% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 29% -24.5%
15% -30.9% 25% -31.8%
20% -37.7% 20% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$88 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized−$919
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses185 / 264
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)449 / 450
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$176
Trades / day50.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 449 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 99¢ 98¢ $139 $137 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $144 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $144 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$10 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $57 −$48 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $401 −$344 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $191 +$292 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $103 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $29 +$74 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $182 −$152 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $112 +$70 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $17 −$16 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $114 +$14 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $35 +$79 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $133 −$99 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $466 −$333 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $976 −$532 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $1,457 −$1,124 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $325 −$325 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $602 −$602 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $1,071 +$1,257 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $974 +$994 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $225 −$225 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $731 +$419 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$49 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $325 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $62 +$30 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $98 −$81 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $24 −$19 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $57 −$33 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $70 −$12 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $18 +$54 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$7 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $22 −$17 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $214 −$142 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$82 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $77 +$8 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $140 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $145 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $140 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $14 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $152 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $140 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $144 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $295 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.09 · official $124.44 · 3500 history records