Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

18 0x18af…66ef other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$192 (-16%) realized −$173 · open −$19

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$122per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-18.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-9.4%	-18.0%	50%	50%	-40.6%
≤30d	6	-9.4%	-18.0%	50%	50%	-40.6%
≤90d	6	-9.4%	-18.0%	50%	50%	-40.6%
all	6	-9.4%	-18.0%	50%	50%	-40.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.0%	50%	-40.6%
10%	-25.9%	50%	-46.2%
15%	-33.0%	50%	-51.4%
20%	-39.6%	33%	-56.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 80% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -34% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$82 vs −$178 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.46 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$351

Realized−$173

Unrealized−$19

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions4

Markets (closed)6 / 10

History coverage1d

Avg bet$122

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	85¢	86¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	Yes	23¢	22¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw?	Yes	12¢	10¢	$100	$87	−$12 (-12%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	51¢	48¢	$70	$65	−$5 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw?	Jun 27	$103	−$100	-97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$101	+$50	+50%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$101	+$60	+60%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 26	$102	+$136	+134%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$338	−$335	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	51¢	$71	1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$102	1h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$103	3h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	85¢	$100	25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	66¢	$101	25h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	62¢	$101	29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$101	29h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	42¢	$102	29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	62¢	$338	36h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.11 · official $351.11 (match) · 13 history records