Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
18 0x18ae…4d37 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-3%) realized −$10 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$3
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -15.0% -23.1% 50% 43% -8.9%
≤30d 15 -20.7% -28.2% 47% 40% -13.8%
≤90d 15 -20.7% -28.2% 47% 40% -13.8%
all 15 -20.7% -28.2% 47% 40% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 40% -13.8%
10% -35.1% 27% -22.1%
15% -41.4% 20% -29.6%
20% -47.1% 20% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage8d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ 54¢ $55 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $16 +$1 +6%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $39 +$13 +33%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $17 +$18 +109%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $54 +$12 +22%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $48 −$3 -7%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $26 +$15 +60%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $25 +$21 +86%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $23 −$7 -32%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $36 +$5 +14%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ $56 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 47¢ $17 5h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 44¢ $9 25h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $31 28h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $17 28h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 43¢ $16 29h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $35 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 49¢ $19 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $14 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 46¢ $44 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $26 4d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 43¢ $10 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $8 4d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 43¢ $14 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $8 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $25 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 51¢ $15 6d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 66¢ $27 6d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $13 7d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 37¢ $9 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $14 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $21 8d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 46¢ $20 8d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $26 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.86 · official $54.86 (match) · 37 history records