Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:58:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x18ad…72fd
world · 96 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$100 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$100 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$96
Realized+$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses32 / 61
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)93 / 96
History coverage527d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 3 History 93 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$70
14 days+$70
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 63¢ 64¢ $94 $94 +$0 (+0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 64¢ 67¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? No 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $210 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $136 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $286 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $125 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $93 +$3 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $131 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $76 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $175 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $173 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $131 +$66 +50%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $81 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $82 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $65 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $3 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $13 +$13 +101%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $135 +$2 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $68 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $5 $0 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $118 +$18 +15%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $53 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $19 +$9 +50%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $33 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $40 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $6 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $46 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $89 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $1 $0 -9%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $87 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $53 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 14 $75 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $33 $0 +1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $14 $0 -1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $113 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $2 $0 -5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $8 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 52% +$111
other 19% −$3
politics 17% −$13
finance 6% +$2
sports 5% +$4
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $26 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $23 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $21 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $23 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 4h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 4h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 4h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $86 8h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 23h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $20 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $40 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $11 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $65 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $34 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $34 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $68 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $19 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $14 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $31 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $35 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $41 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $42 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $12 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $85 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $104 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.9% -5.1% 45% 9% -5.6%
≤30d 26 +8.3% -2.0% 46% 15% -5.2%
≤90d 66 +1.7% -8.0% 35% 6% -6.9%
all 93 -1.5% -10.9% 34% 9% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 9% -7.3%
10% -19.4% 6% -16.1%
15% -27.2% 5% -24.2%
20% -34.4% 4% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.03 · official $94.04 · 471 history records