Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
18 0x18ac…a767 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$124 (-3%) realized −$122 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$44
14 days+$107
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% +$107
world 19% +$96
other 18% −$529
tech 16% +$157
politics 6% +$24
finance 2% +$9
culture 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +17.5% +6.3% 100% 100% +6.3%
≤30d 12 -11.1% -19.6% 75% 50% -17.8%
≤90d 18 -18.8% -26.5% 67% 44% -26.8%
all 29 -9.1% -17.8% 62% 41% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 41% -12.7%
10% -25.6% 21% -21.0%
15% -32.8% 17% -28.6%
20% -39.4% 10% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$108 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized−$122
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage325d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 86¢ 86¢ $293 $290 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $250 +$44 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $80 +$7 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $323 +$57 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 07 $103 +$40 +39%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $49 −$47 -97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $103 −$100 -98%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $305 −$300 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 07 $203 +$35 +17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 06 $51 +$18 +35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 04 $330 +$20 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 03 $170 +$30 +18%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? May 29 $104 +$9 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $121 +$79 +65%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 15 $210 +$46 +22%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? May 13 $293 +$24 +8%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Apr 27 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Microstrategy's mNAV reach 2.00 by December 31? Apr 27 $90 −$90 -100%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Apr 27 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 9? Oct 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on October 9? Oct 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on October 8? Oct 09 $50 +$20 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 8? Oct 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5? Oct 05 $200 +$286 +143%
Will Bitcoin reach $124k in October? Oct 05 $205 +$26 +13%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Oct 04 $200 +$4 +2%
India strike on Pakistan by August 31? Sep 01 $90 +$5 +5%
Ethereum all time high before October? Aug 23 $100 +$284 +284%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Aug 09 $100 −$14 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 86¢ $295 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $294 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $50 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $200 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 86¢ $141 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 54¢ $143 16d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $49 16d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $103 16d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $305 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 85¢ $217 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 70¢ $238 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 92¢ $80 17d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 37¢ $69 17d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 70¢ $182 20d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 58¢ $203 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 96¢ $350 20d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 37¢ $103 20d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 26¢ $51 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 91¢ $330 26d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? SELL No 76¢ $113 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 84¢ $170 38d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 59¢ $121 38d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? BUY No 68¢ $104 38d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 94¢ $256 39d
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $151 41d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 77¢ $210 45d
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 57d
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 57d
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 57d
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $164 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.35 · official $290.35 (match) · 328 history records