Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18ab…2b33 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$1
world 26% −$2
other 26% −$2
sports 12% −$1
crypto 8% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 21 -0.6% -10.1% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 21 -0.6% -10.1% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 20
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage83d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $1,118 −$1 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $1,189 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,126 −$1 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 17 $6 $0 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $224 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Apr 16 $230 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 16 $220 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 16 $16 −$1 -6%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $181 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $69 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $172 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? Mar 26 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 26 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,117 1h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,103 1h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $17 1h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1,188 1h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $27 2h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,161 2h
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $848 2h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $28 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $277 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,126 2h
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $228 60d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $229 60d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $6 61d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $6 61d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $224 61d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $224 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $222 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $222 62d
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats SELL No 95¢ $229 62d
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY No 95¢ $230 62d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $6 62d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $6 62d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $220 62d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $220 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $15 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $16 62d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $4 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records