Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:51:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x18a7…07ae sports 159 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$753 (-11%) realized −$627 · open −$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%50W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days+$16
14 days−$118
30 days−$619
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$842
other 1% −$96
crypto 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +11.7% +1.0% 45% 45% -7.3%
≤30d 26 -44.2% -49.5% 23% 23% -49.3%
≤90d 155 -16.3% -24.3% 32% 32% -21.1%
all 155 -16.3% -24.3% 32% 32% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 32% -21.1%
10% -31.5% 32% -28.6%
15% -38.1% 32% -35.5%
20% -44.2% 32% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$40 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$627
Unrealized−$126
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses50 / 105
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions3
Markets (closed)155 / 159
History coverage85d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Spirit 46¢ 69¢ $48 $73 +$25 (+51%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Spirit 45¢ 45¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Spirit 37¢ 0¢ $151 $0 −$151 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $99 +$104 +105%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $44 −$43 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $60 +$83 +139%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $145 −$142 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $26 +$50 +194%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $58 +$77 +134%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $39 −$38 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $77 −$76 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $45 +$71 +156%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $43 −$43 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $36 −$36 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 03 $42 −$42 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $22 −$21 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline May 31 $22 −$21 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $56 −$55 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline May 26 $64 −$63 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 26 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 3 Winner May 25 $52 +$64 +123%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner May 25 $66 −$65 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $79 −$77 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline May 21 $73 −$71 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $65 −$64 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $115 −$112 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $46 +$69 +152%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $93 −$91 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $52 −$51 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner May 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 19 $51 +$49 +97%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $157 +$177 +112%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 19 $42 +$115 +271%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 19 $45 −$44 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $86 +$169 +197%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $24 +$24 +97%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) May 17 $15 −$3 -21%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta Dream May 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner May 17 $40 −$39 -98%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOUD - Game 3 Winner May 17 $30 −$29 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner May 17 $40 −$39 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 17 $14 −$14 -97%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 17 $47 +$57 +122%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 17 $17 +$28 +162%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 17 $30 +$36 +118%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner May 17 $37 −$37 -98%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $36 +$62 +173%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 46¢ $49 16m
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Spirit 45¢ $70 25m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 31¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $104 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $203 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 48¢ $99 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 17¢ $44 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $143 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 41¢ $60 4h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 25¢ $59 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 37¢ $39 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 40¢ $106 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $75 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 66¢ $7 25h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $135 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 28¢ $19 25h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 42¢ $58 25h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 41¢ $50 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $39 5d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 45¢ $77 5d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 99¢ $116 5d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 38¢ $45 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 39¢ $3 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 35¢ $18 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $50 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 33¢ $43 8d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 30¢ $43 9d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 43¢ $36 17d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 34¢ $42 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 BUY Under 48¢ $22 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.00 · official $142.01 (match) · 310 history records