Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:18:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x18a4…3a31
sports · 277 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$72,794 -106%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$71,159 · open −$1,635
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15,599
Realized−$71,159
Unrealized−$1,635
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses114 / 344
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Est. fees paid−$786
Open positions68
Markets (closed)458 / 277
History coverage1d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day2449.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 68 History 458 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71,159
7 days−$71,159
14 days−$71,159
30 days−$71,159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-2.5) United States 40¢ 100¢ $1,648 $4,099 +$2,450 (+149%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 61¢ 74¢ $1,482 $1,810 +$327 (+22%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 70¢ 66¢ $1,500 $1,425 −$75 (-5%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Under 34¢ 96¢ $496 $1,401 +$906 (+183%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 68¢ 48¢ $1,492 $1,046 −$445 (-30%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 52¢ 32¢ $1,510 $915 −$595 (-39%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 100¢ $471 $878 +$407 (+86%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 47¢ 100¢ $296 $630 +$334 (+113%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 86¢ 86¢ $512 $516 +$4 (+1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 100¢ $213 $381 +$168 (+79%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Over 87¢ 100¢ $247 $283 +$36 (+15%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 12¢ 14¢ $124 $141 +$18 (+14%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 45¢ 100¢ $63 $140 +$77 (+121%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 75¢ 100¢ $95 $126 +$31 (+33%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 65¢ 94¢ $78 $113 +$35 (+45%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Under 91¢ 100¢ $77 $85 +$7 (+10%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) Minnesota Twins 84¢ 92¢ $72 $79 +$7 (+9%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Minnesota Twins 55¢ 56¢ $67 $68 +$2 (+2%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Kansas City Royals 46¢ 84¢ $34 $62 +$28 (+83%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) Kansas City Royals 41¢ 98¢ $25 $61 +$35 (+140%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Seattle Mariners 55¢ 95¢ $33 $57 +$24 (+72%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Los Angeles Angels 84¢ 86¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5) Seattle Mariners 50¢ 90¢ $30 $55 +$24 (+80%)
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 88¢ 87¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Seattle Mariners 46¢ 99¢ $24 $52 +$28 (+115%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 13 $7 −$3 -46%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 13 $0 $0 +49%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $0 $0 +20%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 13 $225 −$225 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 13 $159 −$160 -101%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaime Fa Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 13 $356 −$356 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 13 $68 −$68 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 13 $259 −$188 -72%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 13 $45 −$53 -118%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $95 −$95 -100%
Paris: Talia Gibson vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich Jun 13 $214 −$253 -118%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 13 $48 −$30 -64%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 13 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 205.5 Jun 13 $8 −$5 -66%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 13 $177 −$177 -100%
Geneva Open, Qualification: Kilian Feldbausch vs Nishesh Basavareddy Jun 13 $240 −$252 -105%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $528 −$557 -106%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 13 $705 −$739 -105%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marin Cilic vs Martin Landaluce Jun 13 $323 −$420 -130%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 13 $1,246 −$1,070 -86%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 13 $346 −$355 -103%
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton Jun 13 $404 −$183 -45%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Terence Atmane Jun 13 $148 −$148 -100%
Francavilla: August Holmgren vs Guy Den Ouden Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Liudmila Samsonova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Digvijaypratap Singh vs Leo Vithoontien Jun 13 $147 −$147 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-4.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Emilio Nava Jun 13 $274 −$274 -100%
Istanbul: Maxim Mrva vs Jonas Forejtek Jun 13 $334 −$562 -169%
Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Ilya Ivashka Jun 13 $490 −$493 -101%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 13 $188 −$198 -105%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla Jun 13 $375 −$504 -134%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $329 −$329 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $182 −$195 -107%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 13 $0 +$22 +4535%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 13 $698 −$700 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Jun 13 $32 −$14 -43%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Jun 13 $252 −$297 -118%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 Jun 13 $12 −$2 -16%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $353 −$376 -106%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff Jun 13 $12 −$11 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 93% +$4,974
other 7% −$1,497
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 9¢ $2 0m
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 23¢ $5 0m
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 29¢ $6 0m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 1m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 1m
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) BUY New York Mets 22¢ $5 2m
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) BUY New York Mets 29¢ $2 2m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Under 95¢ $5 2m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Under 95¢ $21 2m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 10¢ $2 2m
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) BUY Houston Astros 6¢ $1 2m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 8¢ $2 2m
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 19¢ $7 2m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 10¢ $2 3m
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 48¢ $10 4m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 90¢ $18 4m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $8 5m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 67¢ $5 6m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 85¢ $9 6m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 50¢ $10 6m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 85¢ $75 6m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 40¢ $8 6m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 40¢ $2 6m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 85¢ $27 7m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 85¢ $85 8m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 85¢ $42 8m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 85¢ $6 8m
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 7¢ $2 8m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 41¢ $6 8m
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 87¢ $15 8m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 458 -24.4% -31.6% 25% 19% -55.6%
≤30d 458 -24.4% -31.6% 25% 19% -55.6%
≤90d 458 -24.4% -31.6% 25% 19% -55.6%
all 458 -24.4% -31.6% 25% 19% -55.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2449.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.6% 19% -55.6%
10% ← realistic here -38.1% 16% -59.9%
15% -44.1% 13% -63.8%
20% -49.6% 11% -67.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,599.01 · official $16,352.32 · 3500 history records