Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
18 0x18a1…de0f sports 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$291 (+22%) realized +$347 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%35W / 25L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$276
7 days+$290
14 days+$303
30 days+$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$260
other 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -8.6% -17.3% 58% 51% +16.0%
≤30d 60 -5.1% -14.1% 58% 52% +15.9%
≤90d 60 -5.1% -14.1% 58% 52% +15.9%
all 60 -5.1% -14.1% 58% 52% +15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 52% +15.9%
10% -22.3% 45% +4.8%
15% -29.8% 32% -5.3%
20% -36.7% 22% -14.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×4.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.7 per $1 lost it wins $6.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$347
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses35 / 25
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)60 / 63
History coverage20d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 60¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 38¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Over 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $101 +$26 +26%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $5 −$3 -61%
Canada to win the second half? Jun 19 $50 +$4 +7%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $10 +$3 +29%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $225 +$111 +49%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $2 $0 -4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $179 +$85 +48%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$5 +46%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $63 +$14 +23%
Cecilio Waterman: 1+ assists Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $131 +$22 +17%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Jordan Ayew: 1+ goals Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $86 +$21 +24%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +205%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +66%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $3 +$2 +66%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $39 +$17 +45%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 +$2 +99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$1 +87%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 +$1 +63%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 $0 +31%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $3 −$2 -55%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +108%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +91%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $5 −$1 -10%
Spread: Valencia (-5.5) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $126 4m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $10 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
Canada to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 16¢ $2 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 58¢ $25 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 23¢ $3 3h
Canada to win the second half? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 77¢ $10 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $25 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 66¢ $100 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 68¢ $4 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 67¢ $121 7h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Kyoji Horiguchi 41¢ $2 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $264 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $179 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $78 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $63 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 27h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $131 27h
Cecilio Waterman: 1+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $1 27h
Jordan Ayew: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $3 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.09 · official $161.50 · 133 history records