Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:53:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x18a0…dea8
other · 55 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,603 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,611 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$1,611
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses20 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 55
History coverage12d
Avg bet$681
Trades / day289.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 1 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,174
7 days−$1,779
14 days−$1,611
30 days−$1,611
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? No 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? No 5¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? No 30¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$35 -1736%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $17 +$35 +209%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$166 -10023%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +630%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$77 -602%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$52 -137%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$34 -593%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$8 -615%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Jun 12 $28 −$133 -480%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$28 -327%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$171 -41310%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$44 -15867%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -278%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $725 −$115 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1,642 −$38 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $554 −$217 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $1,530 +$29 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $160 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $222 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 12 $75 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $85 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $54 −$47 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $410 −$23 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $518 +$24 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $459 +$34 +7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $58 −$45 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $280 −$12 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $661 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $721 +$112 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $69 +$8 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,561 −$141 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,125 −$18 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $321 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $68 −$42 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $119 −$55 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $809 −$149 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2,258 −$47 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1,951 +$148 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $278 −$61 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $22 −$4 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $214 −$15 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $53 +$4 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $20 −$8 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1,755 −$213 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1,720 −$124 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $15 +$2 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $166 −$49 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$863
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 2m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 23m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $26 36m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 36m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 36m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $35 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $11 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $26 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $201 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $11 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $7 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $49 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $30 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $9 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $49 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $32 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -21.9% -29.3% 25% 8% -13.8%
≤30d 68 -17.5% -25.4% 29% 12% -11.7%
≤90d 68 -17.5% -25.4% 29% 12% -11.7%
all 68 -17.5% -25.4% 29% 12% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover289.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.4% 12% -11.7%
10% -32.5% 6% -20.1%
15% ← realistic here -39.1% 6% -27.8%
20% -45.0% 4% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.45 · official $5.45 (match) · 3500 history records