Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:47:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x189f…9c69 politics 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate21%31W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$805per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,010now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$17
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$58
other 37% −$100
sports 12% +$164
world 3% −$34
economics 2% −$3
culture 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 78 -13.6% -21.8% 5% 1% -9.8%
all 145 -2.8% -12.1% 21% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 7% -9.5%
10% -20.5% 7% -18.2%
15% -28.2% 6% -26.1%
20% -35.2% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,147) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$8 · ×3.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$1,010
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses31 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)145 / 147
History coverage139d
Avg bet$805
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $705 $706 +$1 (+0%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $304 $304 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $2,434 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,326 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,131 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $981 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $2,044 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,844 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,234 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $987 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $107 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,061 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $2,319 −$4 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $1,154 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,995 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? May 19 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,759 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,274 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,991 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,259 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,158 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 05 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $1,133 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 02 $710 +$1 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $475 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,150 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,041 −$2 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,144 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,277 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,238 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,169 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $2,294 −$2 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 16 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $3,078 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,121 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $971 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,139 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $304 1h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $203 2h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $203 3h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $705 29h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $652 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $653 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,049 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,050 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,129 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,131 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,088 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,089 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $980 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $981 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,082 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,084 11d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,090 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,092 12d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,133 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,134 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,046 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,047 15d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $985 15d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $987 15d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $999 15d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,001 16d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $107 16d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,059 17d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,061 18d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,045 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,010.07 · official $1,010.07 (match) · 464 history records