Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x189e…74c0 crypto 451 markets active 6d ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1957 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$8,046 (+44%) realized +$8,046 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate36%215W / 385L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1957.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1957 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 491 -29.0% -35.7% 33% 23% -16.9%
≤30d 600 -23.1% -30.4% 36% 25% -15.4%
≤90d 600 -23.1% -30.4% 36% 25% -15.4%
all 600 -23.1% -30.4% 36% 25% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1957.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.4% 25% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -37.1% 17% -23.5%
15% -43.1% 11% -30.9%
20% -48.7% 9% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$8,046
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses215 / 385
Open positions0
Markets (closed)600 / 451
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1957.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 600 Trades
no open positions (203 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $17 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.63 · official $80.00 (match) · 3500 history records