Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:14:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
18 0x189e…5aae sports 208 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (231 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$670 (+13%) realized +$740 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%115W / 78L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day230.9pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$383now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$442
other 5% +$65
world 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (231 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 193 +25.2% +13.3% 60% 58% +1.8%
≤30d 193 +25.2% +13.3% 60% 58% +1.8%
≤90d 193 +25.2% +13.3% 60% 58% +1.8%
all 193 +25.2% +13.3% 60% 58% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover230.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.3% 58% +1.8%
10% ← realistic here +2.5% 54% -8.0%
15% -7.4% 48% -16.9%
20% -16.5% 40% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$22 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$383
Realized+$740
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses115 / 78
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions15
Markets (closed)193 / 208
History coverage2d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day230.9
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D KUUSAMO.gg 56¢ 100¢ $148 $263 +$115 (+77%)
Argentina leading at halftime? No 0¢ 52¢ $0 $41 +$41 (+0%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners Under 0¢ 66¢ $0 $19 +$19 (+0%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina McCartney Kessler 0¢ 56¢ $0 $16 +$16 (+0%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb Pierre-Hugues Herbert 0¢ 20¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+0%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 0¢ 86¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+0%)
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 0¢ 34¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+0%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Under 0¢ 54¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+0%)
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 0¢ 70¢ $0 $6 +$6 (+0%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs L1ga Team 0¢ 40¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Under 0¢ 34¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
ITF Bakio: Max Benaim vs Enrique Carrascosa Diaz Max Benaim 34¢ 1¢ $43 $1 −$42 (-98%)
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D Passion Academy 38¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Power Rangers 48¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy - Map 2 Winner Passion Academy 66¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Tseng vs Heide Tseng 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva Jun 22 $2 +$4 +197%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $29 +$22 +73%
Joint vs. Arango: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $4 +$2 +62%
Coria vs. Bonding: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $3 +$2 +79%
Rio Noguchi vs. Luca Nardi: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3 +$2 +97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $30 +$24 +83%
Stefano Travaglia vs. Luka Mikrut: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3 +$2 +48%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren Jun 22 $79 −$78 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $14 +$11 +73%
Noguchi vs. Nardi: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Yi Zhou Jun 22 $30 +$14 +46%
Tomljanovic vs. Cocciaretto: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $4 −$4 -99%
Jay Clarke vs. Andrea Pellegrino: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $30 +$60 +197%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vitaliy Sachko vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 22 $29 +$17 +57%
Vitaliy Sachko vs. Shintaro Mochizuki: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $7 +$4 +60%
Prado vs. Evans: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $7 +$3 +52%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $20 −$19 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $3 +$7 +188%
Monday vs. Schoolkate: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $6 +$3 +50%
Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs. Soon-Woo Kwon: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 +$4 +93%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Pedro Martinez Jun 22 $14 −$14 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $15 −$14 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Sierra vs Zheng Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $19 −$18 -98%
Cadenasso vs. Cina: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $6 +$4 +60%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $24 −$24 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Tauson vs Shnaider Jun 22 $30 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $9 +$1 +16%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $31 −$30 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $45 +$1 +1%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $91 −$16 -18%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 22 $4 +$4 +127%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $59 +$83 +139%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Jun 22 $11 +$14 +122%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $17 −$17 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $29 +$29 +97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $30 +$14 +47%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $5 +$7 +122%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $34 +$37 +108%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $24 +$220 +900%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $4 +$6 +124%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $19 −$5 -27%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $15 +$10 +65%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $45 +$21 +46%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 22 $4 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $20 4m
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $3 5m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 32¢ $2 6m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $6 7m
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $2 8m
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $18 8m
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 83¢ $8 8m
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $8 8m
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $12 9m
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $4 9m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb BUY Pierre-Hugues Herbert 44¢ $20 13m
Set 1 Winner: Tseng vs Heide BUY Tseng 66¢ $3 19m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY McCartney Kessler 67¢ $20 24m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 35¢ $2 40m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 45¢ $2 52m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 59¢ $4 58m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 46¢ $23 1h
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva BUY Tommaso Compagnucci 33¢ $2 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren BUY Liam Broady 59¢ $40 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren BUY Liam Broady 58¢ $39 1h
ITF Bakio: Max Benaim vs Enrique Carrascosa Diaz BUY Max Benaim 34¢ $3 1h
ITF Bakio: Max Benaim vs Enrique Carrascosa Diaz BUY Max Benaim 34¢ $41 1h
Rio Noguchi vs. Luca Nardi: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 50¢ $3 1h
Coria vs. Bonding: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 1h
Stefano Travaglia vs. Luka Mikrut: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 67¢ $3 2h
Noguchi vs. Nardi: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 28¢ $2 2h
Tomljanovic vs. Cocciaretto: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 70¢ $4 2h
Jay Clarke vs. Andrea Pellegrino: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 45¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 41¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $382.54 · official $382.54 (match) · 569 history records