Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:40:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
18 0x189c…bd67 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge! high turnover
Total PnL +$128 (+18%) realized +$161 · open −$33
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$154
sports 33% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +33.3% +20.6% 50% 50% +18.5%
≤30d 10 +33.3% +20.6% 50% 50% +18.5%
≤90d 10 +33.3% +20.6% 50% 50% +18.5%
all 10 +33.3% +20.6% 50% 50% +18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.6% 50% +18.5%
10% +9.0% 40% +7.1%
15% -1.5% 40% -3.2%
20% -11.2% 40% -12.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$20 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$161
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Lindorfitos 70¢ 46¢ $89 $58 −$31 (-35%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage WinteR SquadronS $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $53 +$11 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $67 −$2 -4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $73 +$64 +88%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $96 −$48 -50%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $18 −$15 -84%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $17 −$1 -8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$60 +99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $52 +$91 +174%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Lindorfitos 70¢ $90 1h
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast A SELL Ivory 100¢ $88 1h
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast A BUY WinteR SquadronS $2 1h
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast A BUY Ivory 68¢ $61 4h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl SELL Rooster 100¢ $64 4h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 82¢ $53 7h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $65 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $67 11h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $71 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $16 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $48 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $121 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.22 · official $151.22 (match) · 39 history records