Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:06:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x189c…ca58
weather · 273 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$66 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$58 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$257
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses203 / 43
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions27
Markets (closed)246 / 273
History coverage74d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 27 History 246 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$9
14 days−$21
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 56¢ 98¢ $31 $54 +$23 (+75%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 50¢ 64¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+28%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 74¢ 88¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+20%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+13%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 40¢ 45¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+12%)
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 39¢ 38¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? No 37¢ 36¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No 61¢ 59¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes 91¢ 84¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-13%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 67¢ 58¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 66¢ 55¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? No 94¢ 91¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Yes 84¢ 76¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 27¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 22¢ 19¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 10? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $12 +$2 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$3 +137%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $12 +$16 +126%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the 2026 NBA Finals be tied 2-2 through 4 games? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 2-1 through 3 games? Jun 09 $4 +$4 +107%
Will a hurricane form by May 31? Jun 02 $4 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $12 +$2 +16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $12 +$7 +59%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $12 +$23 +195%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president May 17 $2 $0 +25%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2 May 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 May 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 06 $12 +$8 +63%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will FK Zenit win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $8 +$5 +67%
Spread: FK Zenit (-1.5) May 02 $12 +$25 +200%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 01 $12 +$2 +16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $12 +$17 +140%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) Apr 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 23 $12 +$5 +40%
Will FK Zenit win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $12 +$8 +71%
Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on April 21? Apr 22 $2 $0 +4%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 19 $12 +$2 +19%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Apr 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian P Apr 18 $12 +$4 +37%
Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Apr 18 $12 +$11 +88%
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elect Apr 18 $4 −$1 -15%
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary electio Apr 18 $12 +$23 +190%
Will voter turnout be 74–77% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elect Apr 18 $10 $0 +1%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $12 −$4 -36%
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? Apr 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 15 $12 +$2 +12%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 15 $12 +$8 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 33% −$5
politics 28% −$15
other 17% −$75
sports 14% +$44
world 4% −$8
crypto 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $2 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $2 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $2 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $2 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $2 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $2 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $3 5h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $2 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $2 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $2 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $2 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $2 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $2 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $2 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 25h
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $2 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $2 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $2 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $2 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $2 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 52¢ $2 44h
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.8% -6.9% 56% 56% -22.0%
≤30d 21 -18.0% -25.8% 48% 43% -23.8%
≤90d 246 -2.6% -11.9% 83% 16% -13.9%
all 246 -2.6% -11.9% 83% 16% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 16% -13.9%
10% -20.3% 13% -22.1%
15% -28.0% 11% -29.6%
20% -35.1% 10% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.60 · official $256.00 (match) · 1445 history records