Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:47:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x189b…8a84 crypto 122 markets active 2d ago coverage 366d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-11%) realized −$33 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%42W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$1
14 days+$10
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$23
sports 33% −$17
other 18% −$1
politics 3% −$3
world 2% −$2
tech 1% +$4
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +21.3% +9.7% 40% 40% -6.7%
≤30d 15 +49.5% +35.3% 40% 40% +34.7%
≤90d 15 +49.5% +35.3% 40% 40% +34.7%
all 119 -19.7% -27.3% 35% 32% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 32% -20.8%
10% -34.3% 30% -28.3%
15% -40.6% 27% -35.3%
20% -46.4% 23% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

366d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses42 / 77
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)119 / 122
History coverage366d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 45¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Yes 31¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$13 +83%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $1 +$3 +323%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 +$7 +650%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$18 +360%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$12 +117%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Mar 01 $1 +$1 +67%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $1 +$1 +126%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jan 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 26 $2 +$5 +249%
US forces enter Iran by January 31? Jan 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leavitt say "Mainstream" during the next White House press briefi Jan 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 11 $1 +$5 +508%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Packers vs. Vikings Jan 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 04 $14 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 04 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 04 $8 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 04 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 04 $8 −$1 -7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jan 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 04 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 04 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 7PM ET Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 5PM ET Jan 03 $3 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jan 03 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jan 03 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 03 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jan 03 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 44h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 44h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $14 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $2 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 10d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 10d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 10d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $18 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $6 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $22 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 42¢ $5 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $5 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5 14d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 17d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 119d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 141d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 154d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 154d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $7 154d
US forces enter Iran by January 31? BUY Yes $1 168d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.67 · official $0.67 (match) · 288 history records