Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:18:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
18 0x1898…4666 other 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$98 (+4%) realized +$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate58%31W / 22L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$126
14 days+$199
30 days+$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$46
crypto 26% +$136
sports 7% +$25
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -3.3% -12.5% 67% 53% +1.0%
≤30d 34 -10.8% -19.3% 62% 35% -1.4%
≤90d 48 +44.5% +30.8% 58% 35% -1.2%
all 53 +42.1% +28.6% 58% 36% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.6% 36% -1.2%
10% +16.3% 25% -10.7%
15% +5.0% 21% -19.3%
20% -5.3% 13% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +93% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses31 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage98d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $49 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$24 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $88 +$43 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $50 −$42 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$44 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $47 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $151 +$27 +18%
Game 3: Ends in Daytime? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$32 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $382 +$10 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $56 +$12 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $123 $0 +0%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $141 +$24 +17%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $101 −$58 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $51 −$24 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $252 +$157 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $61 −$41 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $106 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $147 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $53 +$3 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -85%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $13 $0 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3 $0 -1%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 03 $1 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 30 $12 −$1 -5%
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Apr 27 $2 $0 -1%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 24 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 23 $6 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 21 $2 +$2 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -79%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Apr 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $2 $0 -2%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $2 +$1 +52%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 18 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 18 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 18 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 22 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $49 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $52 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $49 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $14 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $53 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $46 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.70 · official $3.24 · 213 history records