Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:52:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1897…2a42 sports 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-5%) realized −$90 · open +$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%23W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$69
other 22% −$4
crypto 2% +$3
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -8.3% -17.0% 51% 51% -9.3%
≤30d 45 -8.3% -17.0% 51% 51% -9.3%
≤90d 45 -8.3% -17.0% 51% 51% -9.3%
all 45 -8.3% -17.0% 51% 51% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 51% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 44% -18.0%
15% -32.2% 42% -25.9%
20% -38.9% 36% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses23 / 22
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)45 / 49
History coverage2d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 60¢ 100¢ $30 $50 +$20 (+67%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 51¢ 100¢ $20 $39 +$19 (+96%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 100¢ $20 $38 +$18 (+89%)
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 64¢ 100¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$15 +73%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$6 +119%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $10 +$8 +76%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $5 +$5 +119%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $30 +$11 +36%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 +$7 +65%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -96%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 +$9 +93%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $40 +$22 +55%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 +$5 +50%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 +$12 +238%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $23 −$19 -81%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$8 +83%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $7 +$6 +86%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$2 +18%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$10 +101%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$4 +19%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $31 +$5 +16%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 −$18 -91%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 +$5 +49%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$7 -67%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$6 -55%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 +$13 +64%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $8 +$4 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$6 +55%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10 +$14 +133%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $10 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $30 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $5 4h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $20 4h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2¢ $0 6h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $5 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 8h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $10 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $30 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $40 23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 24h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 26h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 29h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $4 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 30h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $23 30h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 0¢ $0 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 33h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $13 33h
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $10 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.50 · official $142.51 (match) · 93 history records