Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:03:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
18 0x1897…5dc7 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$3,761 (+47%) realized +$3,840 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,019per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,626
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +60.1% +44.8% 100% 100% +40.5%
≤30d 3 +38.8% +25.6% 67% 67% +40.4%
≤90d 3 +38.8% +25.6% 67% 67% +40.4%
all 3 +38.8% +25.6% 67% 67% +40.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.6% 67% +40.4%
10% ← realistic here +13.6% 67% +27.0%
15% +2.6% 67% +14.7%
20% -7.4% 33% +3.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
17.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,853 vs −$0 · ×4511.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9023.54 per $1 lost it wins $9023.54
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,272
Realized+$3,840
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage10d
Avg bet$2,019
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group C Alpha Gaming 56¢ 52¢ $1,351 $1,272 −$79 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $2,092 +$1,520 +73%
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro Jun 23 $4,604 +$2,185 +48%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $11 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 BUY Alpha Gaming 56¢ $1,322 1h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 BUY Alpha Gaming 52¢ $29 1h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Mandatory 58¢ $41 14h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Mandatory 58¢ $59 14h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Mandatory 57¢ $289 14h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Mandatory 54¢ $47 14h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Mandatory 58¢ $276 14h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Mandatory 58¢ $346 14h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Mandatory 57¢ $111 14h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Mandatory 57¢ $923 14h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 BUY Alpha Gaming 47¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 BUY Alpha Gaming 48¢ $7 34h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 50¢ $88 2d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 50¢ $202 2d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 50¢ $88 2d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 50¢ $4 2d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 55¢ $11 3d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 58¢ $633 3d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 53¢ $11 3d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 55¢ $11 3d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 55¢ $59 3d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro SELL AlQadsiah Esports 46¢ $43 3d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro SELL AlQadsiah Esports 46¢ $25 3d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 52¢ $33 3d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 52¢ $47 3d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 52¢ $155 4d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 51¢ $63 4d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 51¢ $110 4d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 51¢ $34 4d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 56¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,271.52 · official $1,271.52 (match) · 82 history records