Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:07:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
18 0x1896…9783 politics 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 638d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$531 (-22%) realized −$535 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$39
14 days+$191
30 days+$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 77% −$571
sports 19% +$45
other 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -40.3% -46.0% 29% 29% -1.7%
≤30d 9 -18.6% -26.4% 44% 44% +19.8%
≤90d 9 -18.6% -26.4% 44% 44% +19.8%
all 14 -8.0% -16.8% 57% 57% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 57% -30.8%
10% -24.7% 29% -37.4%
15% -32.0% 29% -43.5%
20% -38.7% 29% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$158 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

638d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$535
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage638d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $424 +$50 +12%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$11 +206%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $258 +$152 +59%
Will the government shutdown end November 13? May 27 $169 +$94 +56%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 13 $150 +$19 +13%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 10 $134 +$16 +12%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Nov 04 $63 +$71 +113%
US government shutdown by October 1? Oct 02 $56 +$7 +12%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $986 −$930 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 46h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 50¢ $5 46h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 71¢ $5 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 94¢ $18 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 90¢ $401 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 55¢ $5 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 6d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY No 63¢ $258 18d
Will the government shutdown end November 13? BUY Yes 64¢ $169 218d
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? SELL Yes 99¢ $169 218d
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? BUY Yes 88¢ $150 221d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 89¢ $134 227d
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? BUY Yes 47¢ $63 259d
US government shutdown by October 1? BUY Yes 89¢ $56 261d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $56 590d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 51¢ $986 637d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.17 · official $104.17 (match) · 27 history records