Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:40:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x1895…32fb
crypto · 167 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$18 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses116 / 50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)166 / 167
History coverage146d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 166 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 49¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $42 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$6 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$19 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$14
other 0% $0
world 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $25 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $21 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $22 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $11 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $12 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 -10.3% -18.9% 72% 31% -11.0%
≤30d 151 -10.3% -18.9% 72% 31% -11.0%
≤90d 151 -10.3% -18.9% 72% 31% -11.0%
all 166 -9.6% -18.2% 70% 33% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 33% -10.9%
10% -26.1% 17% -19.4%
15% -33.2% 7% -27.2%
20% -39.7% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.70 · official $20.53 (match) · 392 history records