Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
18 0x1892…0743 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+6%) realized +$21 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$60
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$64
tech 25% +$11
other 14% −$35
crypto 12% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-51.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.4% -11.7% 67% 67% +32.3%
≤30d 7 -58.2% -62.2% 29% 29% +1.2%
≤90d 10 -46.8% -51.9% 40% 40% -4.5%
all 10 -46.8% -51.9% 40% 40% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.9% 40% -4.5%
10% -56.5% 30% -13.7%
15% -60.7% 10% -22.0%
20% -64.6% 10% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$11 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage55d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 13¢ 14¢ $82 $83 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $108 +$63 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -94%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 +$5 +34%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 03 $97 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 25 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.75 · official $82.75 (match) · 16 history records