Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:48:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
18 0x1890…20eb world 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,873 (+6%) realized +$1,918 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,660per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$577now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,911
14 days+$1,886
30 days+$1,908
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 99% +$1,652
finance 0% −$69
other 0% −$24
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 50% +37.9%
≤30d 5 +10.9% +0.4% 40% 40% +19.8%
≤90d 13 +18.7% +7.4% 62% 62% +10.6%
all 13 +18.7% +7.4% 62% 62% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 62% +10.6%
10% -2.9% 46% +0.0%
15% -12.3% 38% -9.7%
20% -20.9% 38% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$284 vs −$134 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.41 per $1 lost it wins $3.41
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$577
Realized+$1,918
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)13 / 19
History coverage72d
Avg bet$1,660
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $300 $275 −$25 (-8%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $60 $44 −$17 (-28%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $16 $20 +$3 (+20%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-35%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $16 $18 +$3 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $110 −$69 -63%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $3,535 +$1,980 +56%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $1,955 −$25 -1%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 25 $233 −$10 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $47 +$31 +67%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 01 $328 +$71 +22%
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $561 −$561 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 17 $45 +$33 +73%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $161 +$102 +63%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $32 +$28 +89%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 15 $114 −$3 -3%
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $87 +$26 +30%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 09 $25 +$3 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $70 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $50 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $50 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $200 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $686 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $1,709 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $2,700 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $1,000 41h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $175 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $17 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $17 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $315 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $10 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $10 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $3 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $1,325 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $86 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $3,070 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $286 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $283 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $10,011 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $5,600 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $5,500 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $1,617 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $36 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $3,787 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $57 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $3,465 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $577.27 · official $577.27 (match) · 215 history records