Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
18 0x188e…8a07 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$232 (-9%) realized −$50 · open −$182
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$788now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$358
7 days−$372
14 days−$302
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$158
sports 14% −$370
crypto 14% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-41.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -71.3% -74.0% 17% 17% -82.7%
≤30d 15 -35.1% -41.3% 33% 33% -14.7%
≤90d 15 -35.1% -41.3% 33% 33% -14.7%
all 15 -35.1% -41.3% 33% 33% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.3% 33% -14.7%
10% -46.9% 33% -22.9%
15% -52.0% 33% -30.3%
20% -56.7% 33% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$79 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$788
Realized−$50
Unrealized−$182
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions8
Markets (closed)15 / 23
History coverage15d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $200 $134 −$66 (-33%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $110 $96 −$14 (-13%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $90 $85 −$5 (-6%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $70 $78 +$8 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +72%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $305 +$203 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $153 +$194 +126%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$53 +104%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $204 +$213 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $102 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $204 13h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $102 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $102 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $93 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 7d
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $72 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $62 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 10d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $62 10d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $114 10d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $103 13d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $103 13d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 13d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $103 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $106 14d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $305 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $206 15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $204 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $788.38 · official $788.38 (match) · 54 history records