Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:44:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x188d…f6d9 other 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 637d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 68L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% −$14
economics 12% −$2
other 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 70 -2.0% -11.4% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

637d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage637d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $59 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $59 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 22 $59 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $59 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 14 $59 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $59 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 10 $59 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Bengals win the AFC Championship? Nov 24 $56 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the Bundesliga? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will AC Milan win the Serie A? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the Western Conference? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Stuttgart win the Bundesliga? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will TJ Watt win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in December? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Meissner effect confirmed near room temperature? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Cooper Kupp be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 20 $0 $0 -4%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Caleb Williams be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
Democrats win popular vote by 6-7%? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Panthers win the NFC South? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship? Dec 10 $0 $0 -1%
Will Roy Altman be appointed as the next Florida senator? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Hoffenheim win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Israel military strike against Iran in November? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Richardson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will Garrett Nussmeier win the Heisman Trophy? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the Eastern Conference? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Trump wins and picks Dimon for Treasury Secretary? Nov 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 17 $0 $0 -1%
Will Olympiacos win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Jayden Daniels win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Nov 17 $0 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 15h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $3 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 7d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $57 22d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $57 22d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL No 100¢ $57 39d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY No 100¢ $57 39d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $57 46d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $57 46d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $59 69d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $59 69d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $59 74d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $59 75d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 80d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 80d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 84d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 85d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 97d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 97d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 101d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $59 104d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $59 104d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 107d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 107d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 109d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records