Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:58:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x188d…72db crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-18%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -16.8% -24.8% 40% 40% -46.9%
≤30d 15 -16.8% -24.8% 40% 40% -46.9%
≤90d 15 -16.8% -24.8% 40% 40% -46.9%
all 15 -16.8% -24.8% 40% 40% -46.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.8% 40% -46.9%
10% ← realistic here -32.0% 33% -52.0%
15% -38.5% 33% -56.6%
20% -44.6% 33% -60.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records