Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:16:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x188a…adfe sports 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$430 (-22%) realized −$451 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%17W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$612
other 9% +$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -7.1% -15.9% 42% 40% -33.4%
≤30d 40 -7.1% -15.9% 42% 40% -33.4%
≤90d 40 -7.1% -15.9% 42% 40% -33.4%
all 40 -7.1% -15.9% 42% 40% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 40% -33.4%
10% -24.0% 32% -39.8%
15% -31.3% 28% -45.6%
20% -38.1% 22% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$53 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$451
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage5d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) Ghana 38¢ 70¢ $31 $58 +$27 (+86%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Under 19¢ 18¢ $56 $51 −$4 (-8%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 40¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 31¢ 30¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $81 −$81 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $37 +$52 +140%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $82 −$82 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $82 −$82 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $81 −$81 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $41 +$55 +134%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $41 +$17 +42%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $42 +$138 +325%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $40 +$7 +18%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $40 +$6 +14%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $41 +$13 +31%
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$27 +134%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $20 +$2 +11%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $20 +$6 +27%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 +$8 +42%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$13 +62%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 21 $118 −$71 -60%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$32 +158%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $37 +$70 +188%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $70 +$122 +174%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $37 +$174 +474%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $20 +$1 +4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $81 −$81 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 31¢ $27 2h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $29 2h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $28 2h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $29 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $31 4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $32 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 38¢ $32 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 34¢ $81 12h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $34 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $37 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $37 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $82 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $40 24h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $82 34h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 38¢ $41 36h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $82 36h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $41 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $41 41h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $40 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $40 2d
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $48 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $40 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $41 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 28¢ $42 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 25¢ $41 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 45¢ $42 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $41 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $41 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 23¢ $42 2d
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.32 · official $160.67 · 92 history records