Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:11:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
18 0x1886…42f2 crypto 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate91%40W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$8
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -3.6% -12.8% 91% 5% -11.2%
≤30d 44 -3.6% -12.8% 91% 5% -11.2%
≤90d 44 -3.6% -12.8% 91% 5% -11.2%
all 44 -3.6% -12.8% 91% 5% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 5% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 5% -19.7%
15% -28.7% 5% -27.4%
20% -35.7% 5% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses40 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Yes 50¢ 57¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.85 · official $2.85 (match) · 95 history records