Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:34:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

18
0x1884…b7a5
sports · 612 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$126 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$140 · open +$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$460
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses352 / 254
Est. fees paid−$450
Open positions6
Markets (closed)606 / 612
History coverage71d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 606 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$316
7 days−$184
14 days−$47
30 days−$413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 36¢ 46¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 78¢ 94¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles San Diego Padres 73¢ 72¢ $97 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 74¢ 78¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ 54¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 63¢ 18¢ $50 $14 −$36 (-72%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 24¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Seattle Mariners 42¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Cleveland Guardians 46¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Chicago Cubs 27¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies Arizona Diamondbacks 36¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Cincinnati Reds 71¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Texas Rangers 38¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago White Sox 61¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres St. Louis Cardinals 70¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres Athletics 64¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Toronto Blue Jays 28¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays Pittsburgh Pirates 41¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Seattle Mariners 25¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets Detroit Tigers 45¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 30¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 67¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) New York Mets 40¢ 0¢ $133 $0 −$133 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals San Diego Padres 30¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians Washington Nationals 52¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $252 +$127 +50%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $101 −$26 -26%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $50 +$18 +36%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $152 +$134 +89%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $203 −$92 -45%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $251 +$64 +26%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $50 +$6 +12%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $153 +$64 +42%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $51 +$31 +62%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $110 +$19 +17%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $202 +$79 +39%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $101 +$92 +91%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $152 −$150 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $202 +$399 +197%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $201 +$21 +10%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $201 −$200 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $201 +$49 +24%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $101 +$32 +32%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $151 −$150 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $50 −$50 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $201 +$62 +31%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $50 +$17 +34%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $49 +$20 +40%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $252 −$35 -14%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $202 −$202 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $151 +$52 +34%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $152 +$32 +21%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 10 $152 −$152 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $101 +$28 +28%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 10 $206 −$53 -26%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $151 +$82 +54%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 10 $51 +$36 +70%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $152 +$40 +26%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $127 −$97 -76%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $202 +$204 +101%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $202 +$123 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 74¢ $50 31m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 27¢ $51 35m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $51 35m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 56¢ $51 50m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 85¢ $50 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 63¢ $51 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 80¢ $47 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 72¢ $50 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 67¢ $14 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 67¢ $5 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 67¢ $31 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 68¢ $50 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 44¢ $51 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 80¢ $50 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 86¢ $50 3h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 70¢ $50 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 20¢ $51 17h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 71¢ $36 17h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 71¢ $14 17h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 67¢ $50 17h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 73¢ $50 18h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 86¢ $50 18h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 45¢ $51 18h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 23¢ $51 19h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 89¢ $50 19h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 21¢ $51 20h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 33¢ $51 20h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 36¢ $51 20h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 82¢ $50 20h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 56¢ $51 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -12.2% -20.6% 55% 53% -11.4%
≤30d 293 -8.5% -17.2% 56% 55% -10.8%
≤90d 606 -2.0% -11.4% 58% 55% -9.9%
all 606 -2.0% -11.4% 58% 55% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 55% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 46% -18.5%
15% -27.6% 34% -26.4%
20% -34.7% 24% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $460.22 · official $460.22 (match) · 2103 history records